ICTNPL6030A
Forecast service demand

This unit describes the performance outcomes, skills and knowledge required to develop forecasts for demand for telecommunications services. It includes assessing activities that may change service demand and capacity requirements.All telecommunications service providers perform forecasting to assist in network planning. Accurate forecast helps operators make key investment decisions relating to product development and network growthNo licensing, legislative, regulatory or certification requirements apply to this unit at the time of endorsement but users should confirm requirements with the relevant federal, state or territory authority.

Application

Technical planners, designers and supporting administration staff apply the skills and knowledge in this unit. It may also apply to technical staff moving into planning and management positions.

This unit may apply to new installation or upgrades to existing telecommunications services.


Elements and Performance Criteria

ELEMENT

PERFORMANCE CRITERIA

1. Gather forecast intelligence

1.1. Access market intelligence for information on customer demand on the network and likely growth in network use

1.2. Obtain demand data to assess the potential network traffic quantity and flow

1.3. Access information relating to new and emerging technologies, facilities and features and their specific applications to evaluate the market trends in new technology implementation

1.4. Obtain data from network analysis to determine the state of the existing network using customer complaint reports and network fault incidence rate

2. Produce forecast service demand information

2.1. Analyse and process all collated data and prepare to the format required for forecasting activity

2.2. Select and configure a suitable software forecasting tool to process the collated data

2.3. Evaluate forecast results to generate forecasts of service demand using information in reference to new developments

2.4. Compile forecast figures and report according to enterprise policy

3. Review forecasts and update systems records

3.1. Review forecasts according to enterprise policy

3.2. Ensure forecasts consider new developments in the area and technological changes where appropriate

3.3. Maintain updated systems records with information received from each installation amendment activity

Required Skills

Required skills

analytical skills to assess technical demand requirements based on technical and non-technical input data

literacy skills to:

document technical requirements

read and interpret equipment, system manuals, specifications and relevant enterprise policy

numeracy skills to:

apply forecasting techniques

assess channel capacities and overall dimensioning requirements

work with statistical data

problem solving skills to account for unexpected changes in demand requirements

technical skills to:

compile reports and record activities of enterprise systems

work with data and statistical techniques

Required knowledge

broad knowledge of:

common telecommunications measurements quantities

network and transmission equipment and capabilities

network topologies and common access and transmission hierarchies

configure and use software forecasting tools

detailed knowledge of:

forecasting techniques

sources of data to aid forecasting

market intelligence

new and emerging technologies

typical customer applications and usage levels

Evidence Required

The evidence guide provides advice on assessment and must be read in conjunction with the performance criteria, required skills and knowledge, range statement and the Assessment Guidelines for the Training Package.

Overview of assessment

Critical aspects for assessment and evidence required to demonstrate competency in this unit

Evidence of the ability to:

collect data vital to the development of traffic and service variation

generate forecasts in relation to traffic and service variation using appropriate forecasting techniques

review forecasts relevant to specific planning periods.

Context of and specific resources for assessment

Assessment must ensure:

data from organisations involved in planning initiatives

a range of software currently used in industry

relevant regulations, specifications that impact on forecasting activities.

Method of assessment

A range of assessment methods should be used to assess practical skills and knowledge. The following examples are appropriate for this unit:

direct observation of the candidate undertaking practical forecasting

review of reports and demand forecasts completed by the candidate

oral or written questioning to assess knowledge of dimensioning issues, types of systems and applications.

Guidance information for assessment

Holistic assessment with other units relevant to the industry sector, workplace and job role is recommended, for example:

ICTNPL6029A Plan the development and growth of the telecommunications network.

Aboriginal people and other people from a non-English speaking background may have second language issues.

Access must be provided to appropriate learning and assessment support when required.

Assessment processes and techniques must be culturally appropriate, and appropriate to the oral communication skill level, and language and literacy capacity of the candidate and the work being performed.

In all cases where practical assessment is used it will be combined with targeted questioning to assess required knowledge. Questioning techniques should not require language, literacy and numeracy skills beyond those required in this unit of competency.

Where applicable, physical resources should include equipment modified for people with special needs.


Range Statement

The range statement relates to the unit of competency as a whole. It allows for different work environments and situations that may affect performance. Bold italicised wording, if used in the performance criteria, is detailed below. Essential operating conditions that may be present with training and assessment (depending on the work situation, needs of the candidate, accessibility of the item, and local industry and regional contexts) may also be included.

Market intelligence may include:

customer request data

development area plans

development triggers

market research:

external triggers may include:

government initiatives

local councils

local government planning

property developers

market surveys

planning approvals

planning commission data

service delivery data

zoning data

telecommunication databases:

capacity assessment data

traffic dimensioning data.

Demand data may be:

collected from:

customers:

actual

prospective

economic planners

internal organisational groups

local

marketing organisations

real estate agents

sales organisations

state and federal governments

statutory bodies

traffic management systems

in relation to:

access transport planning

changing customer use patterns

demographic changes

economic forecasts

industry trends

influence of technology on traffic demand

land developments

local industry

market conditions

marketing programs

population trends

possible environmental impacts

power re-zoning

sales forecasts

shire planning

traffic patterns.

New and emerging technologies may be obtained from:

marketing groups

specific technology planning groups

vendor and enterprise forward planning groups.

Software forecasting tool may include:

specialist forecasting software

spreadsheets

statistical tools:

graphical estimation

moving averages:

simple

weighted

Poisson distribution

probability

queuing theory

regression analysis

trend analysis.

Forecasts may include:

bandwidth

call or data traffic demand

circuit dimensioning

congestion levels

demand for telecommunications services

growth expectations in number of services required

quality of service (QoS) targets

transmission capacity in Erlangs.

New developments may include:

commercial

communications construction be occurring directly or concurrently with primary activity

domestic

industrial.

Systems records may include:

databases

network management

records:

equipment

operational

planning.


Sectors

Unit sector

Telecommunications


Competency Field

Network planning


Employability Skills

This unit contains employability skills.


Licensing Information

Refer to Unit Descriptor